Assiniboia Downs Bettor’s Blog

Do you ever pay attention to when a jockey has ridden two or more horses in the past and then chooses one? Well you should.
             You would have to figure if the jockey has been on the different horses he should have a pretty good idea to which one is better. Most times I usually lean a little more to the one he has chosen if I feel they are close in ability.
             I can think of two different circumstances when I do not always use this method though. The first one is some jockeys always ride for a certain trainer and the jockey really does not have a choice for which horse he gets. If the jockey is not riding for his goto trainer and riding another lesser known trainer, WATCH OUT. I think this is a strong play on the jockey’s choice of horse. The second time I do not always go with the jockey’s choice is if a better jockey jumps into the tack on one of the horses. It is possible the trainer was able to find a better jockey to ride his horse, again no choice on the jockey.
         Another real good angle on “Does the Jockey Know” is when a jockey jumps off a horse he has ridden a few times and is somewhat successful with and picks up another mount on a different horse he has not been on before. Either is agent has seen something in the morning or the jockey himself has ridden the horse in the morning. It is always important to try and think what was the jockey thinking when he chose his horse. This is more of a factor when they are a high % jockey. Also remember do not completely base your selection on just the jockey choice, you still must use everything else to pick the winner.

“Out Pick the Press” is back on Friday. Since ASD has four live days this long weekend I have got four selectors to try and Beat the Press. You will recgonize some of the names and you may want to check out their picks.

Long Weekend of racing starts tomorrow. Today is a great day to get everything ready and in order to be prepared for a successful weekend, I sure will be.

Friday’s Blog: ASD bet/play of the day, out pick the press

Are you someone that looks at final race times when comparing horse to horse? How do you compare horse to horse and time to time when the race on different days?
Well the only way you can do this is know all the race times for each day you are comparing for the different days. Have I confused you yet?
Well here is what I mean:
Horse A   had a time of 1:10.3   on May 2
Horse B                       1:12.2   on May 5
Horse C                       1:10.2   on May 3
(Lets assume these horses are $10,000 claimers)
Who is best? Lets compare the three other 6 furlong races on these days
May 2    1:11  maidens, 1:12 5000 claimers, 1:10.4  15,000 claimers
May 3    1:09.3 5000 claimer, 1:10.1 maidens, 1:09.2 15,000 claimers
May 5    1:12 8,000 claimers, 1:12.4 maidens, 1:12.3 5,000 claimers

Look closely the May 5th day is not that bad because it was a slow day. The May 3rd day was a fast day and notice how the 5000 claimer went faster than his horse C today. May 2nd day says this horse A ran the fastest of the three in comparison because you will notice his time is faster than 15,000 claimers on the same day, even though his time is 1/5 slower than horse C. If  my deciding factor came down to this last comparison I would be betting Horse A and even play an exacta A-B. Simply put you must know the times for each day before you can compare final times, if not it is like comparing apples to oranges.
I hope I was able to get you to understand this. If not email me and I will try and speak better english.

Bay Meadows is gone: I had to mention this because if you follow my blog it is one track I like to follow. They are having one last two week meet there in the summer but that is it. Condos going up there. They are now down to just Golden Gate (in Northern California) with their Tapeta surface, which is not that bad, better than most synthetic surfaces. Typical Russel Baze wins his last mount there and his 40th riding title, I guess that is why they sometimes called this track Baze Meadows.

Thursday’s Blog:  Jockey changes, right or wrong move
“Out pick the Press” for this weekend at ASD still has Sunday and Monday open for someone to take their shot.

Bloggers vs Free Press Challenge: Yesterday Shawn took his shot, I am afraid Shawn let us bloggers down. Free Press won 3 winners to 2 winners. Shawn did get his best bet home though so he would have only needed a tie. Bloggers 1 Free Press 1  Kitty: $5.00

I will need 4 new people for this upcoming week to take their shot to “Out Pick the Press”. Email me what day you want.

Recapping this past weekend:

Lets start with the Peter Pan stakes at Belmont. This race is important for Big Brown shot at the triple crown. I have heard only horses that have raced in this race have a chance to win the Belmont Stakes. Well Casino Drive won it. Kent Desormeaux was the jockey, you may recgonize this name because he is the jockey of Big Brown. I think at this point Kent will already know if Big Brown has what it takes because now he can compare the two horses, but ofcourse he will still have to win the Preakness on Saturday May 17th.

ASD recap: Well there were only 2 live race days this week but I thought there were a lot of different opportunities to make money. On Friday there was the carryover pick 4, but on Sunday it was grinding money in the place and show pools. Also on Sunday the last race had the best kind of vulnerable favorite that was begging to lose.
        You all knew about the $4,898 of dead money on Friday for the pick 4. That is why you bet into that pool. Sunday was a different story, there was a big holiday crowd that clearly liked betting names and numbers on all the horses to place and especially to show. If you look at the payouts from Sunday you will see what I mean. There were races that a $5.00 horse had the same amount of money to show on at $30.00 horse. Well, for me my eyes lit up and it was, I hate to say this, but it was like taking candy from a baby. Or simply put the bank was open. All I did all day was bet place and show horses that I felt had a very high % of running in the money and getting great returns. Always pay attention to the pools, especially on special big crowd days.
    Last point of Sunday which leads to a handicapping tip of the day. Race#9 had the vulnerable favorite in it. #8 Chickenonastikbaby.
    Here is why;
       -Claimed last year for $3,000 after being dropped all the way down from an Allowance race  (Red flag #1)
      -Races once this year for $6000 runs an even third as the favorite
      -Drops right down to the bottoms a week later to $3000  (Red Flag#2)

Here were my thoughts. Why would a trainer who claimed a horse for $3,000 last fall spend all his money wintering the horse and suddenly drop the horse down right after a $6,000 dollar race. He is looking to dump this horse, obviously. This horse made $35,000 last year, if she was anywhere a bit healthy he would not have dropped the horse so quickly. You drop horses later in the year to get a win, not at the start. Simply put they let #1 go off at $7.00 that had many good angles to put her in the winner’s circle.
     Thanks holiday crowd.

Â

With the bloggers up 1 0 over the press, can Shawn make it 2 0.

Here are the selections

Shawn’s Picks                                          Free Press Picks
(second horse is used in case of scratch

Race #1.   #4 Williamsburg Slew   #3                   4-3
Race#2.   #4 Wiskey Drive  # 7                           5-7
RAce#3.   #3 Tijuana Gold  # 5                           5-4
Race#4.  #6 Felted  #2                                       8-6
RAce# 5.#10 Lady Villa(best bet) #3                    6-5
Race#6. #5 Persevere On  #7                              9-5
Race#7.   #3 Oye Vai  # 7                                   7-2
Rce#8.  1 Country Humour #7                            8-2
RAce#9.  6. Colleen Jackpot  # 8                         8(BB)-1

 

ASD Play/Bet of the DAy:

It is a very competitive card today with a lot of tough handicapping races, but here goes

Race#5

.20 superfecta wheel    1,5,10/1,3,5,10/1,3,4,5,7,10/1,3,4,5,7,10     cost $22.40

#1,5 are my longshots that should get a good trip behind the early pace which could set it up for a good price. The #10 will be most likely the favorite, I almost didn’t even put him on top because he will have a tough trip. For some reason race#5 at ASD is usually the upset race of the day.

 

Happy Mothers Day

�

Yesterday’s Results are in and Charlotte had 4 wins, including her best bet. The Free Press had only 2 wins. Between the two of them you would have had a few exacta with both their picks. Nice picking Charlotte, she had $5.00 to the bloggers kitty for the end of the year for someone to win.  Standings:  Bloggers 1 Free Press 0

Everyone got involved in the pick 4 yesterday at ASD and the ones that got it had a nice return of $1183.00 for a $2.00 ticket. There were approximately 18 winning tickets.

With no live racing tonight my play of the day will be at a night track

Play/Bet of the Day:   Lone Star Park

Lets try the late pick 4

Race#8    4,5,8,10/7/1,2/1,2,4,5,8,9      =$48.00

It is a little higher than I usually post but I think the 9th and 10th races are solid plays and will be very tough to beat. The first and last leg I took all the contenders. The bold numbers in the above ticket are favorites and most likely winners

Sunday’s Blog: Back to live racing and out picking the press

Day 1 of the bloggers vs the Press: Today Charlotte will take her shot to help build the bloggers kitty for someone to win at the end of the meet.

Here are Charlotte’s selections: (Second number is in case of a scratch)

Charlotte’s                                                     Free Press

Race#1 #2 LUCKY HY LO , #5                             3-5
Race#2 #7 T POWER , #2                                  9-7
Race#3 #5 SHENAIGAN , #2                               2-4
Race#4 #5 ROCK’ N USA (best bet) , #1              4-5
Race#5 #9 ANGELWITHATTITUDE , #6                1-6
Race#6 #3 SWINGING STAR , #1                        3-1
Race#7 #4TRIPS, #1                                           4-1
Race#8 #10 AMERCIAN POET, #7                         *7(best bet)-5

Only 2 races are the same with two different best bet horses. Will be interesting to follow along. Best bet breaks the tie if both have the same amount of wins

Stretch’s Play/Bet of the day at ASD:

Lets go to Race#5

I think #6 will be tough to beat. I will probably bet her to win but lets tri a trifecta instead. Here is how I would play it.

$1 tri wheel  6/9/1,2,3,7,8  =$5   and 6/1,2,3,7,8/9  =$5

Total bet $10, lets see what happens.

Do not forget about the pick 4 carryover that starts in race#4. I think there will be at least $15,000 to be won with $4,898 of dead money just sitting there.

Lets hope we can have as good a weekend as last weeks picks (2 out of 3).

Tip of the Day:

Always pay special attention to horses that are racing in a Maiden Claimer for the first time. No matter how bad their form is do not just skip by them. If the horse even has only one start in Maiden Special Weight and was terrible take a look at the trainer, the stats and workouts. You have to believe a horse that started in a no tag claimer must have had some potential or at least more than a horse that started in for a bottom maiden claimer. Some trainers even like to just put a horse in over his head for his first start just to get a tightner in and they go for the win next time. These are the trainers that have very good second lifetime starts. I know a few handicappers simply put a couple dollars on horses everytime that drop in to claiming price  like this, and they come out ahead. When you are handicapping a maiden race and all the horses look bad, and there is only one or two maiden special weight horses dropping for the first time, they become an even better play.

Saturday’s Blog: Even though there is no live racing on Saturday I will take a look at an evening card to play instead. Look back at ASD pick 4 payout.

Playing the Superfectas:  I have not discussed to much about how I play superfectas  but I thought it was time with ASD offering them at least three times per race card. In Canada the minimum base amount is .20 cents, in the US its .10. If you are playing from Canada into the US pools you still must bet a minimum $1.00 where they only have to spend .10. Legislature is working on this as we speak to make it equal.
The big advantage of playing the .20 supers is you can cover so many more combinations. That being said you always have to look for value. If you are keying a 3-5 on top, 2-1 in second and so on, spend $1.00 per combination. Getting a .20 super with all favorites is not worth your time.
I have done some research on best ways to play supers when you are spending (.20 or .10). The best return is playing the pyramid . Lets take a look
1,2 /1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
This ticket would cost $25.00 for a .20 cent ticket or $120 for a $1.00. There are a lot of combinations and if you are putting value horses in there the return can be big. Your goal when playing a ticket like this is to get a couple of 5-1 horses and maybe a 20-1 horse in there. So if a $2.00 super pays $3,000 you would get $300, not bad for a $25 investment. I would only play this ticket though if horses 1,2 are at least 3-1 or higher and horses 5,6 are at least 8-1 or higher. I would also only play this ticket if I can separate selections 1,2 as being better than 3,4 and those being better than 5,6 and so on. If you can’t decide on two horses on top then you can’t play a ticket like this, then maybe wait for another race to play a super. The more horses you can have in the show and fourth spot the better chance to hit a home run on a 20-1 horse that makes it pay. A ticket like 1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,2,3,4,5,6 is ok but it usually horses 7 or 8 that are the big prices. If horses 1,2,3,4 are at 5-1 or better then it is a different story. There are many ways to play supers, if you play them and win, stick with your method. This above method is just another way I have found can work out well when playing the .20 cent wheel. Remember though VALUE, VALUE AND MORE VALUE. If not wait for another race to take your shot. If you see a vulnerable favorite that can run out of the top three spots, that is also a good time to play the super. Superfectas are tough and hitting them is not easy so do not get to hung up on them.
Thursday’s Blog: Maiden Special Weight Droppers and “Out pick the Press begins”

Has this ever happened to you? You have handicapped an entire race card you bet the first couple races (or even three or four horses) and your horses lose. You are down a bunch of money. You then pass the next couple races and you watch your horses come in one after another and you either have no money left your you LOSE CONFIDENCE in betting. In many past blogs I have mentioned about not putting on your eggs in one basket, meaning you can’t bet most of your money early on now matter how sure you are in your selections. Lets assume you bet properly and simply have lost hope and/or confidence. It is so important to continue to bet your selections, you have to forget about your previous losing races. I feel if you did the work it will pay off. If you keep betting with in yourself and do not panic you will probably pick some winners later in the card and at least get some of your money if not all.
Why do I tell you this story because a friend of mine the other day started off poorly at Belmont and when I got there he had completely lost his confidence. He then picks the last three races dead on but bet very little and if he had bet normally he would have been at worse broken even on the day. To make the matters worse he then reduced his Santa Anita pick 6 ticket because of lack of funds and being frustrated. Long story short, he would have had 6 of 6 for $46,000 instead of 5 of 6 for $1,500. OUCH !!.
I only recommend continuing to bet a card if you have done the work, if you have just handicapped the first four races and lost but not handicapped the remaining races you probably will not get your loses back.
Show me the money at Hollywood continues with only 58 people surviving. I do not know anyone still going.

There is a Woodbine contest going on today on the web site www.score.ca .

“Out Pick the Press” starts on Friday, there is still a spot open for this weekend. Someone else must want to show everyone they are smarter than the press. We need us bloggers to beat the press.

Anyone new to this blog, NEWBIE questions welcomed.

Lets take a look back at a few interesting stats and facts from this past weekend at ASD.
-Invaders from other tracks won 20 of 24 races (horses that had been racing)
-There was no dominate bias with either early pace or closers
-Consistent workouts coming in was the biggest sign which horses were ready
-Jared Brown was the hottest trainer and Jim Fergason was a close second
-The biggest surprise was jockey Janine Stianson with all her wins
-If you watch closely you will see she is a very good rider and her wins will continue. I thought her best ride was on Sunday in the 5th race. She was the difference in the stretch, she clearly out rode the jockey on the horse that finished second. Janine kept her good form in the lane and then switched hands with the whip and got the most out of her horse. The other jockey lost his form in the last sixteenth and it cost him the win. Jockeys can make a difference.

With 24 races in the books you can now have some data to compare for next weekends racing. We all have a few days to look back and get caught to be ready for Friday. There is a carryover pick 4 (which is new to ASD) of over $4,800 available for Friday.

“Out pick the Press” starts on Friday. It will be us bloggers versus The Free Press. I do know he (George Williams) had a good weekend with selecting winners. It will be a good challenge. Simply someone for each live day will pick the winners of each race on their selected day. If you beat the press, $5.00 goes into the pool for the end of the year winners to win. Email me to get your date to “Out pick the Press”. Everyone gets one chance and then second chancers after that.

Show me the Money at Hollywood continues to have more victims. Anyone out there still going.

If you like Harness racing there is a contest at Mohawk tomorrow and then on Wednesday is Woodbine (thoroughbred). Check out this site www.thescore.123racing.ca

Any questions or comments about this past weekend for the Derby or any racing questions send them in.

In case anyone missed it Big Brown won the Derby. I am jumping on the band wagon because this horse can run.
    Yesterday’s blog I gave you all the negative stats against Big Brown, one important angle I missed was that if you are a superstar stats mean nothing. Clearly I was wrong on thinking Big Brown was just an average three year old. I also said I had not seen any good replays from the three year olds, well watching the Derby I saw one. He will be very tough to beat him in his next two starts.
    On a side note after the race Kent Desormeaux gave one of the best interviews and description of the race. Not sure where you could find it but it was neat to here.
    Concluding on the stats of bad post and angles, I am still sticking with betting against low %. In the long run betting against favorites that are up against the odds will make you money (Avoid Superstars).

Assiniboia Downs Play/Bet of the Day:

Race#8 : In this race there is only one horse. #2 should not lose this race. I have seen her run at Portland and if she runs back to any of her last four see wins for fun. So today nothing fancy. Simply betting her to win.

win #2 (Destined for Drama)

Show me the money at Hollywood. It was not a good day for most in this contest, including me. I am now out. Lack of class on my selection showed up and he could not make enough ground in the stretch to get third.

“Out Pick the Press” starts next Friday, so if you feel you can pick more winners than the Free Press then email me your name and date you want to take your shot.

Monday’s Blog: Recap of ASD weekend and reminder on Out Pick the Press

Â