Assiniboia Downs Bettor’s Blog

Lets begin today with the monthly contest.

ASD $20 Live Contest: 3 players

Tim selects Race#1 $20 win#6

Earl (last months qualifier) selects Race#5 $2 exacta box 4,6
                                                 Race#6 $2 pick 3 wheel 5,6/5,6/5,7 =$16

George (first timer from e-ponies) selects Race#6 $5 exacta wheel 5/3,4
                                                                        $10 win#5

Good luck to everyone. Due to lack of time I can’t comment on the plays.

Leader Board: Mike G. $51.80, highest so far and only qualifier for the month of July

 

Over bet trouble: You all know I watch lots of replays and rely greatly on them. The replays do not work when the trouble is so obvious that everyone sees it. A great example was last week with a horse name Miomoud. This horse got left badly in his last start. So everybody bet him to win. He went off at $3.30 to win. Clearly a big underlay. I thought he would win too. At $3.30 he is not a bet. Sure enough he ran third. The bias was up against him a little to on that day. I think next time he will go off at his proper value and will probably win. Why I am telling you this long winded story is because just because a horse gets into big trouble does not mean he is a for sure winner next time. There are many other contenders in the race. In fact the two horses Miomoud lost to in the race came from other races that did not race against Miomoud. One of them showed outside early pace and the other is an improving horse.
    Watching replays is great but if everyone sees the trouble, you lose the value. I have also said many times, a horses last race is not his only race. If you are only betting a horse because of the last trouble line you are not always betting the best horse in the race.

 

“Ultimate Parlay Contest” at www.e-ponies.com continues. Currently Shawn has a parlay of $130.00 from his original $5.00 bet. A very good feat, it in fact is 20 correct bets in a row. Sure many are $2.10 to show but some obviously have paid more. I think having 20 in a row, shows that if you pick your spots and have a lot of patience you can grind a small profit. The question to Shawn, is when will he bank it? We all know the steak will end sometime. Check out the site and find out.

Back on Monday

I always like to challenge myself in anything I do. Whether it be in golf or in fact horse racing, of course. I think if we do not challenge ourselves we simpy get into a rut. I do not like ruts. So many people fall into a rut in horse racing. They use the same methods of handicapping their entire life. Why do people do this is, well it is because every now and then they hit a winner using their overall losing angles and methods. How often do you hear people say they had a winner at 20-1. Even though their winner was a month ago(or longer), but how people talk its like the angle works all the time. If more people kept track of their bets and overall winning and losing they would be in for a rude awakening. �
   So this brings me to my challenge for all of us for the next two months. The challenge consists of two parts. First decide on one new thing you are going to do to give yourself a better chance to make money at the races. For example, watch replays, avoid betting 10 different tracks in one day, or betting into very small pools that make no sense. The second part of the challenge, pick an amount you want to make in the two months. If you are always losing at the track, maybe set a goal of being up $10.00 for the two months. If you feel you make $1000 a month, then maybe say $1,200. Be realistic in this number. If you only play the races once a week I would say set a goal of about $400.00 for the two months at the most.
   The first part of the challenge for myself is going to be walking from races when the price is too low. I find I am still betting races when the return is not worth the risk. I know the horse is the best in the race and still have a tendacy to bet him even though it is an underlay. I am going to walk on these ones for the next two months. In fact all races that I do not see a potential or proper value I will try to pass. I think in the long run it will pay off because even when you win, you are not getting the full value. So you have to win so many more of these races just to make up for the losing ones. The second part of the challenge I am going to try and make 20% more on the races in the next two months.

Are you daring enough, or even want to take the “Stretch Challenge”? I know some of you will but many will simply stay in your rut. Actually the more that stay in their same rut, the better for the ones that want to make money.

ASD $20 Live:  2 players

Mike G. selects Race#5   $14 exacta 9-8,   $6 exacta 8-9

I like Mike’s betting style and think he has a very good shot to cash.

John S. selects Race#7 $20 win#2 Jakes Lady Luck

John has the horse in this one, the only way she may not win is if one of the other fillies get loose on the front end.

Good luck to you both. Everyone gets a new shot at the ASD $20 live contest.

 

“Ultimate Parlay Contest” at www.e-ponies.com only has two weeks to go and no one has pulled away yet. The $300.00 is still there for the taking.

 

Saturday’s Blog: The sheep see the same thing you do

I have mentioned many times that holidays are easily the best day to make money at the races. There are so many once a year players that bring their $20 or $30 and bet names and numbers of horses with zero chance to win. This is almost as good as carry overs, either way it is dead money. This year at ASD will be even better. We have two new partners in today, you may have heard of these states California and Arizona. I certainly know Californians like to bet. Yesterday’s handle was $210,000, I think today’s will be at least that if not closer to $250,000. That is a big chunk of change from bettors that do not really know our track. All I can say is “The Bank is Open”, take advantage of it.

ASD $20 Live Finals recap:

There were 5 players yesterday and Stewart and Shawn came extremely close in winning it. Stewart had the first three horses in the superfecta but missed the fourth. Shawn had 3 out of 4 in the pick 4 or he would have won it.
Barry made no mistakes in his early pick 3 and hit. He finished with a total of $36.00. Nicely done. He wins $25.00 in betting vouchers and is in the year end finals. He also has the option this month to write his own blog and tell everyone what he thinks of racing or take a shot at me or Ivan or whomever. Or simply tell us his angles on how he makes money at the races.

The ASD $20 Live contest starts all over again on Friday. Everyone gets to have another shot. I want to see everyone get involved.

“Ultimate Parlay Contest” at www.e-ponies.com continues until July 15. There is still time to jump in. I was doing quite well but my last few picks finished third so my parlay has ended. Check out the standings, see if you have want it takes to pick up some of the $300 cash up for grabs.

ASD Race analysis of the Day:

I think most of the races are straight forward today, but the Canada Day Stakes I am not so sure. To start I am the biggest Preservata fan and I am not totally convinced she is a cinch. She certainly has the figures and the pedigree to handle the distance but she is not proven at the distance yet. Her last race was the first race she was able to be rated, but can she be rated at the mile. I think she needs to be rated behind #2 and #10. The slight problem is the #2,#10 are trained by the same trainer and I doubt they will knock heads early. Therefore she probably will have to move a little early because if you leave Baze alone on the front end, especially during afternoon racing, watch out he may steal on you.  Take note the horse (#2) has had no workout in over 20 days,  for myself I always like to see some kind of activity when the horse is off for three weeks. I think Polynesian Kitty has not looked herself this year and would be a surprize if she won. The rest all need a career race to win and I do not really see many of them coming up to that type of race.
     All this being said, we will see if Preservata is the real deal. I am hoping she is.

 

Friday’s Blog: Taking the Stretch Challenge

It has come down to 5 players for the month of June. Many tried to make money in the $20 ASD Live contest but only a few made some money. I will start by saying a couple of them went aggressive today. I like seeing that because they control their own destiny. I am all about puting yourself in the right position in a handicapping contest, rather than let the others decide your fate.

The June $20 ASD Live Finals:

Gus selects

Race#8 $20 win#6 Minoud

I am quite sure Gus watched the replay

Shawn selects

Race#4 $1 pick 4 wheel  7/1,2,6/3,4/3,4,6  =$18
Race#8 $2 show #6   (all refunds on this horse too)

Like he is taking a shot

Earl selects

Race#1  $4 Daily Double  1-6, $4 DD 1-3
Race#3  $2 exacta box 2,5    (#4 subsitute)
Race#5  $4 win,place#2    (#6 substitute)

Stewart selects

Race#5  $1 superfecta wheel 1,2/1,2/3,6/3,4,6 =$8
             $1 superfecta wheel 1,2,6/1,2,6/1,2,6/3,4  =$12
Race#4 (substitute exacta box 4,7)

Barry selects

Race#1  $1 pick 3 wheel 1,2,3,4,5/2/2,4   =$10
Race#3 $10 win #4 Man Law   (substitute any refunds on win)

Out of the 5 selectors there is some conflicting picks, but some similar selections as well. Will be interesting to see if the similar horses win, who bet the best. In case of a tie, the higher qualifier is the winner.

Remember tomorrow July 1st, racing is at 1:00pm and the pools will be huge. Extra partners from all over.

If you play “Guess the handle at ASD” for the two days you probably want to go a little higher than last week. My tip or quess would be $450,001, with a very small shot at $500,000. Last week it was $360,000 for the two days.

Upcoming Blog: Will you take the Stretch Challenge?

Saturday was the final day to qualify to be Handicapper of the month. This month you needed to make a little more than last.

Here are the qualifiers with their totals:  

                                        Gus  $67.50    hit the exacta a few times
                                        Shawn $41.00   got a nice place price
                                        Earl $36.00      hit a good show price
                                        Stewart $33.90  hit a couple of small trifectas
                                       *Barry           gets a second chance from last month
                                                           because his selections scratched

All five will have to have their selections in by 10:00am Tuesday morning. They
will all have $20 to spend on ASD races that evening. They can spend them
anyway they want. Highest money earned wins.

Sloppy weekend update: If you were watching or playing the races this past
weekend you would have picked up on the early pace bias again, which usually
happens when the track is sealed. I would suggest when all these horses run
back next time you do not base your bet entirely on their last race. Why you
ask, well there are a couple� reasons. First, some horses do not like the slop
at all, some do. Hence the mudders term.
Second, closers had a tough time closing. There was at least one you may
want to put in your stable mail for next out. Yes you are right, you have to
do the work on this one, I will not give it out. Easy to find though. Remember
a horse’s form is not just one race.

Steward’s update: I gave them a couple of days off, but not today. So I was
wrong, they are consistent. Consistently WRONG in their rulings. They gave
Cuthbertson 5 days for his incident they other day. I have never heard of
5 days (1/13 of a meet) for one dangerous act.
The only consistent part is that they gave Marquez 5 days for many incidents
that he did not get his number taken down. Come on, when will  it end.
Whats next a race presentation for them. Oh right there was one last Wednesday
Race#7, or everyone at least thought it was them doing the presentation. If
you have a program you will know what I mean (hey wait you should all have
saved your programs). I still can’t believe the jockeys do not revolt on these
people, I still can’t believe they still have jobs. What do they have on
everyone that they can still be doing such a terrible job and still get to go
to work everyday. Hey weatherman go to work everyday.
Yes now I am making fun of the weathermen too.

*Get your programs early for July 1st, rumor has it the California will be betting
into our pools on that day. The last time they did that there was over $500,000
bet. The bank will be open that day, make sure you get your share.

Back on Tuesday

I have been waiting to write this blog for awhile, I just needed a race to occur a certain way and it did. Well on Tuesday at ASD, it happened.

Race in question:   Tuesday June 23rd Race#8  Horse#1 Tramontane

I urge you to watch the replay first before you keep reading the best blog ever.
Remember all the ASD live races are now online on the website. Very useful
handicapping tool.

OK now that some of you have watched it, I know the rest are too lazy to learn
from the replay. Anyways, if you look carefully you will see Alyssa Harder, jockey,�
not ever use her whip once. In fact never even shows the horse it. Watch carefully
while she rode the #1 down the stretch, only gave him a small hand ride. Clearly
looks like she was not trying, right. She won though, by a nose, so I guess it
does not matter. She must have been trying to lose the race. She should be fined
for not trying. WRONG WRONG WRONG. The trainer’s instructions were do not use
a whip at all, it actually distracts the horse. Let him just run. If you watch his other
races, when ever the whip was used he stopped. Now the whip not being used
was not the only reason the horse ran a career best race, but I found it so interesting what would the stewards have done if she lost. She clearly did nothing in the stretch
to help the horse win, well in fact that were the instructions, let the horse do it all.

How is this any different than the Simon Husbands incident last year at Woodbine.
Same instructions but he lost by a nose. Help me out here, what is the difference.
Both horses ran career best races, both jockeys did what they were told.
The difference was a combined total of half a head margin. One lost and one won
by a NOSE.
    I guess the reason I wrote this article was because the was so much media
about the Husband’s incident and many of you thought he should be suspended.
Well tell me, should Harder have been suspended if she lost, or should she be
suspended because she won by only a nose. Last point to this, the stewards should
not suspend any jockey’s for not trying or other crazy things they may do, until
they get the whole picture. Hence talking to all parties involved.

.
ASD $20 Live Contest: 3 players

Roger selects

Race#7 $2 quinella 5-10, $2 quinella 5-6(Oh I forgot, he is one of the 5 quinella lovers)
            $1 trifecta wheel 1,6,10/5/1,6,10 =$6    $3 win#5,$7 place#5

I do not mind Roger’s selection. He is trying to hit a home run. This horse loves to
finish second so I like the trifecta playing him in second. Also you will see that he
is 2 for 2 on the off track and does run better going longer. He will be a price.

Stewart selects (a bunch of races)

Race#2
$1 trifecta box 1,2,5     $2 quinella 2-5
Race#4
$1 trifecta box 1,4,5
Race#7
$1 trifecta box 6,7,10
*in case of scratches
Race#3 exacta box 2,5 only if two or more in a race get scratched,
                              otherwise exacta box

Too many races to analyse, I think Stewart is hoping to hit one of them and hoping its
enough to get into the finals

Shawn selects   (gets very lucky because the horse he selected was vet scratch,
                         hmm wonder how he would have run)

Race#7 $20 place#10

I do not think the place money will pay enough to make the finals, but we will see.
            

 

ASD races cut short because of a tragedy: If you were wondering why the last
2 races at ASD were cancelled, it was because a Valet past away just before the
paddocking of the seventh race. Andy, a very popular guy at ASD, had a
heart attack and the paramedics were unable to revive him.
He will be missed. I think cancelling the races was the right thing to do and ASD Management handled the situation in the
correct way. Andy will be missed.
    As for the STUPID patrons at the track, WAKE UP!! Some of you were complaining
the races should not be cancelled and want a refund for a $2.00 program because
the last 2 races were not completed. I say to you find out the facts first (don’t be a steward) before you complain and if and you still want a refund and want to complain, beat it. Show some compassion for the situation.

Back on Monday

Every race card there are always horses dropping in class. Some are good drops and others are scary drops that do not make sense.�
     A horse that is trying hard but is simply not good enough at a higher level
should make a drop. A horse that has been very competitive at a higher level and
then suddenly takes a big drop is usually not a good bet. A low percentage trainer
that drops a horse way down is always a terrible bet. I have found most times the
horse is cooked. A high percentage trainer simply might just want a win.
    The other bad drop is a huge drop in class after a terrible effort. A great example
was on Tuesday at ASD. Investors Gamble was the name of the horse. He had tons
of talent until this year. His first race was awful and ran 8th, they then dropped
him to 3000non winners of the year. Needless to say he went off as a big favorite
and lost. Clearly a bad dropper. Do not expect to see him again.
   I like to look at the horse’s entire pp’s and decide is this where the horse should
be running. If the horse is way to low in claiming price I usually look elsewhere.
Sure from time to time these horses may win but they are always a big favorite
anyway so I am not missing out on anything with them

ASD $20 Live Contest:  1 player today

Shawn selects

Race#7 #5 Babcock Lake  ml 4-5

$10 win, $10 place

I wrote today’s blog based on this pick. Is this a good or bad drop? Well for starters the horse ran a huge race against some of the best horses on the ground and almost won. Should the horse drop, probably not. I could see a small drop in class if he wants an easy win. This was my first thought. I then looked at his pps a little more closely. This horse in fact did run for 3,500 a few months ago and then worked his way up the ladder to a much higher level. So maybe the trainer thinks this is where he belongs. Brinson is winning at a high % right now, so maybe he is trying to steal a win. All this being said I am just babbling about nothing so I will end it there. My final comment, either way he will go off at about $3.00. Well Monsoon Rain deserved to be $3.00 the other day, this one has way to many questions for me to bet a horse at that price.
    Shawn’s betting $10 win place is a bad bet because I do not think this horse will run second, he either wins by a bunch or finishes near the back. Place price would be $2.10 anyway. I would say either bet everything to win on a low price horse or do not bet at
all.

Leader board: Well Gus took over first with a great bet hitting his exacta. Paying $13.50 so he now has the lead at $67.50.

  Gus  $67.50   Earl  $36.00  Olympia $30   Mike S. $26.00

You quinella people are probably saying if he had bet a $20 quinella instead he would
have had more. Well I checked into that and did the math, if he had bet the
$20 quinella instead it would have paid $7.60 and the exacta would have paid $15.00.
   Yes it changes that much when the pools are so small.�
Maybe we should add a seventh exotic bet at ASD so the pools can be even smaller.
Lets call it the Exacta-show bet. You need the winner and the third place horse to win that one. I always here everyone say they got the winner and nosed out for second.
This way they hit and are happy too. We can advertise, we have the smallest
and most pools at any track around.
  

Ultimate Parlay Contest continues at www.e-ponies.com . Still time to get involved and get some of the $300 up for grabs. I was able to parlay my $5 to $87 and then bank it. I still have a little ways to go to catch the leader though.

 

Afternoon blog on Saturday: Whip or not to Whip that is the question. If you read
one blog this week, make it tomorrow. Might be one of my best, actually they are all a must read

The first Tuesday of the year worked out quite well with $180,000 for the night, even with a couple of small fields with big favorites that I thought could not lose. Did anyone catch the bias yesterday? I shouldn’t need to tell you. I will give you a hint do not look for too many closers tonight, just because early pace is king in each race, do not say to yourself the closers are due to win. Well unless you are a Maple Leafs fan and think they are due to win the cup one year. Speaking of wanting to be a loser, it just came to me. Thinking that the leafs are going to win one year is like thinking you are going to win at the races doing the same things wrong over and over. Moral of the story don’t be like the leafs. Try and become a winner at the races.

ASD $20 Live Contest:  1 player tonight

Gus G. selects

Race#5 $10 exacta box 7,8

I think Gus has a great shot here. On numbers alone they standout. Some of the other horses have been in this condition for ever and may never leave it.

There was only one winner last night, the other two that valued went after a good betting race with value but was simply incorrect in a tough race to handicap.

Standings:  Earl  $36.00  Olympia $30.00 Mike S. $26.00

Race Day Analysis at ASD:

I do not see many betting opportunities today but lets look at Race#8

Here is a race that there will be some horses that may not finish until Friday they are so slow. To be politically correct I won’t mention the bad ones, even though the owners should already know that.
   So the horses that may have a factor in the race. 1,2,4,7,8,9. I do not think all of
these can win but may at least have a say. The unknown horses are 2,8. #2 is
stretching out and the #8 is an invader from Hastings. The rest you basically know
their running styles. The horse with the best chance to improve would be #7 after
he made a nice middle move only to tire late. The safe play may be a place or show
bet on the #4. If I was playing a superfecta in this race I would use the 4 and the 8
in a few spots with the above horses mentioned. All this being said I would not spend
that much on this race.

How good is Darren Dunn in race call? Well check out June 10th Race#9 on the replays. Watch the very start of the race before the gates open, he even sees the
skunk crossing the track. Does he miss anything out there, maybe he should be
a steward.

Pick 7 grows at ASD to almost $2,000. I think it is much tougher today than it was yesterday. Its all yours tonight.

Back on Friday

�

Many people simply do not have enough time to spend four evenings at the race track. So you ask how can up stay on top of everything. It is simple, make sure you get at least a program for every live card. Sure I know some of you cheapos, say that is a waste of $2.00 bucks. I couldn’t disagree more with you. That program will easily get you that $2.00 back many times over.
   You basically need no more than about 5 minutes to scan the entire card and then simply file it with all your other programs (that you should be saving). There are two reasons why you should always scan;
    First, I just always scan the card in case there is a horse you have been waiting on. Right away you should then spend an extra minute or two and confirm that this horse you were waiting for is a play. If it is, call in a small bet and go about the rest of your day as if there was no racing going on.
    Second reason is for when you are going back and watching replays it is good to
have the race’s pp’s in front of you to follow along (this was so bad English but I do
not know how to fix it). I always like to know the form of all the others horses and
how the race was suppose to set up.
    Missing a program on the entire meet is like missing one piece of a puzzle, it is
just not a complete picture.

Stewards Stuff: Day off on that, there is so much else out there and I do not think
they deserve any extra lime light, even though it is always bad. And how much can
they screw up on the dark day. Oh right, they have done that too.

ASD $20 live Contest:  Currently there are 3 players

Tony (first time blogger) selects

Race #2  $8 win, place #4     ml 6-1
              $2 exacta box 4,5

This is a wide open race and at least Tony is looking for value.

Olympia (first time blogger) selects

Race#3 $20 win#2   Monsoon Rain ml 6-5

Simply put the horse should not lose. I do think he will not pay more than $3.00 to win.

Alex (the willey vetran) selects

Race#2 $20 win #1 King Cool ml 4-1

We have conficting bets on the same race tonight. I think that shows how tough this race really is. Alex likes the horse’s last race and the even effort which is probably good enough to win this race.

Good luck to all of you

I may add stuff later in the afternoon on Tuesday.

 

Pick 7 carry over at ASD is finally getting up there to $1,400. I think its only been a 14 day carry over. Hmm, imagine if they had put a bit of a guarrantee. My feeling is a guarantee does attract more betting and even if you lose the odd guarantee you would make up for it in the long run. Hey, what do I know, I pushed for Wednesday racing.

Back on Wednesday: Who would have guess, I still have a blog for now. Keep those ASD $20 live contests coming in.

Did you know all you need is to attend a 60 hour course in Kentucky or Arizona and you are basically then in the program to become a steward. Obviously you will need that politically correct pull to get yourself to be an ASD Steward. It is very clear that is the case in Winnipeg, because I know there are probably hundreds of people that could do a better job. For some reason, I do not think I would have that political backing in need. I have a feeling that I might be in the bad books with them. Hey if they smartened up I would give them full credit.

Just when you thought they couldn’t get worse, they did. They have suspended Carlos Marquez for 5 days for dangerous riding. Help me out here, I do not remember when his horses have been disqualified? Anyone know?

ASD Steward’s Consistency:  NOT !!

Now that we can view all the replays from this year at ASD I urge you to check the three races below in question.  Its available on the ASD home page.

May 20 Race#6,  watch horses 4(Marquez),3 come over on the 2,1  �
            no change, guess it didn’t effect the outcome (wrong)

June 10 Race#7 watch horse 1 come in front 3 and on a different inquiry Â
                        4 (Marquez) come in front of the 2
          no change, and nothing should have been done
                      -but I think this was partially why Marquez got days

June 17 Race#6 watch 8 come over in front of the 7
          -but also watch the start of the race and see how bad the 7 looked, clearly�
            is a sore horse (his last race he finished 9 beaten 21)

I would like you to tell me the difference between race on May 20th and June 17.
I would like you to tell me how you come up with 5 days suspension with not being DQ’d.

I could go on and voice my opinions but I think I have made my point.

I would like you people to help me out by emailing Sharon Gulyas, Darren Dunn, Harvey Warner and the Manitoba racing commission (mhrc@manitobahorsecomm.org )
and start causing a stir to make them do something about them. How much worse can it get?

I had one person email me in asking if I was trying to lose my blog because of the attack of the stewards. My comment to him is if I lose it, I lose it. I am going to voice my opinion on them until something is done. We are all bettors and it is a tough enough game to win at, now we have to try and beat the stewards.

There are still only 2 qualifiers for the $20 ASD Live Contest and only 4 days to take your shot. Get your picks in.

Next blog: Tuesday (unless I get shut down) 4 days at ASD begins. Better get ready.